Signs You Are Old

It's totally inevitable. Try as I might to evade and avoid it the reality is I am getting older.  Not you! - the reader.  You are still young and fabulous, no doubt. I speak only of myself.  And to prove my point I offer the following, overwhelming evidence.

I own an old people stock
It takes a certain mindset (associated with aging) to find yourself searching stocks by dividend yield percentages. You realize that you're about to purchase a stock where management can't think of anything better to do with their hard fought gains than to give them back to the investors.  The type of management (and company) that would have been anathema to invest in up to now.  And then, your brain clicks and it seems like a dandy idea. I'm there. 

Yep.  I bought (and retain) my first 'dividend stock'.  Purchased to get that dividend payment every quarter.  And to sit around talking to other old people about it; comparing it to their dividend stocks.

Well, put the coffee pot on; I'm ready to join the conversation.

I hear about what a crappy driver I am far too often
If it were true it would be worse. Still, listening to people that have crashed and destroyed cars (at much younger ages than I am at I might add) express concerns about my driving abilities is a disconcerting indicator that I must be getting older.  Can everyone be wrong?

I will say publicly that I do not want to be that old person whose keys are taken away far later than would have assured society a solid chance at survival. I would hope I possess the humility to accept the natural decay of my abilities with grace.  But if I'm not, please do your duty and pry them from my bony fingers.

Before that time, however, please allow me to assure you.  I always get to where I am going whether or not I drive an optimum path to get there.  And, growing up I came by a certain degree of vigilance the hard way - and have always, and continue to endeavor to avoid receiving or administering harm. So be kind to the old guy.

I own an adjustable bed frame
Further, to support the supposition that I am getting old I offer this:  I just recently purchased an adjustable bed frame.

Tell me you've never visited a parent or grandparent in the hospital and coveted one of these beauties! I readily admit I have. Today they're not just for patients - they're for pre-patients too!  And, it came with a 20 year warranty so I can enjoy the benefits of acid-reflux free bed lounging for years to come.  Restless leg syndrome?  Hah! A thing of the past!

Two out of three ain't bad
I like the dividend checks and my pre-patient bed status; although I could live without the driving critics. Or, to summarize using the words of the 1977 classic Meatloaf ballad - "Two out of three ain't bad".

Which brings me to my final point.  When you summarize your life using 1970's music lyrics... you might be old.

Two Americas

A colleague recently sent me this.  It's written by a woman with a unique, inside perspective as it seeks to explain/expose the economic divide in this great nation.  Worth the read no matter what your political bent it.

Connecting the Dots

I recently read an article about Steve Jobs in our local newspaper. The article was a reprint of a graduation commencement address he gave at a college. Buried deep within the text of that address was a thought that resonates deep within me. Steve made the point that it requires perspective to ‘connect the dots’ in life. I think his specific statement was that you can’t connect the lines looking forward, into the future. You can only connect the dots of your life when you look back and see how life’s events have fit together into the whole.

I am not aware if Steve was a particularly religious man. But, I think his comments mimic the experience of a believer in living a life of faith.

The older I get the more I have come to appreciate this perspective. Perhaps the only small tweak I would add to this idea is that when you take enough time to look back you start to discover the big picture of your life and can almost discern the shapes and sizes of the remaining pieces. Or at least we think we can.

Thanksgiving is a time for retrospection; for surveying the past and giving thanks. It’s fast coming upon us again. I am particularly looking forward to the upcoming Thanksgiving week because we are going to spend it with family and friends on vacation. I am already dreaming of all the fun and relaxing times we’ll have together.

That word ‘together’ carries more weight the older I get. I’ve now been together with Julie and her family much longer than I was not-together with her. I’ve now maintained lifetime friendships in which I’ve been together far longer than not-together. I’ve now approached life together with my children for longer than our being not-together (at least with Joel). This aspect of remaining in community for long periods of time carries more weight in my thinking now. When you decide to continue in relationship you have decided to be known by people. It is difficult to maintain a charade for years. Decades. It just isn’t possible. Your failures will become known. Your shortcomings will emerge. Those things you simply wish people didn’t know about you will become known and remembered. You will be exposed for who you are.

And then this glorious truth emerges that can only be found from prolonged togetherness. You realize at some point that you are accepted. This acceptance is a true acceptance; not one born of lack of knowlege or a sense of tolerance. Not one due to deception and hiding of flaws. Instead, this is the acceptance that accompanies being known – flaws and all.

This is a God Thing. Acceptance is a two part deal. There’s the part where acceptance is offered by someone. And, there’s the part where you have to accept it. Acceptance is as much about our ability to receive it as it is about whoever is willing to offer it. Interestingly, it seems much easier to accept when we practice offering it to others. By giving acceptance to someone we recognize has flaws just like us – we practice the thought process that allows us to forgive ourselves our flaws and receive acceptance from others.

Now, my family and friends have far fewer and less severe flaws than I do – so I’ve not gotten as much practice giving as receiving. But, I’ve at least had enough to be extremely thankful to God for opportunities to experience and share togetherness. And, I’ve given and received enough acceptance to know how much God has to offer to me to cover my sins. It truly is an awe inspiring thought.

You see, when you look back – the dots you connect are not all the dirt paths and smooth roads of our own making. Instead, you see the chasms that required God’s incredible bridge between sin and forgiveness to make the dots of our paths connect.

Motivation

There are periods of time in my life when, I’m almost ashamed to admit, my prime motivation is just to keep going. Keep moving forward. To simply get to the other side of a set of obstacles that clutter my days. My mindset becomes one of “ok, over the next ABC period of time I have to do/accomplish X, Y and Z. Let’s just get through this”.

In fact, these are realistic thoughts. Sometimes living and functioning in community presents a de rigueur rhythm that calls us to trade living our lives for living for others. Sacrificial love makes demands at times. Life in a fallen world makes demands at times. My challenge is to not allow these insipid demands to totally dull my zest for life.

I feel like I’m coming out of one of those ABC->XYZ periods of life and am actually starting to get my motivational juices flowing again. It feels good.

What Could You Accomplish in 20 Billion Hours?

I want you to fantasize with me for just a couple minutes.  Imagine you were given 20 Billion hours a year which you could use to accomplish anything you desire for society.  What would you do?   Almost anything seems possible doesn't it? 

Would you like to give each and every person on the planet a relaxing, soul-invigorating 3 hour massage?  You'd have the time.

What about providing free babysitting to each single mother on the planet so they could take a two week vacation?  You could do it.

Want to beautify every city in America?  There are only 30,000 or so cities.  You'd have over 650,000 hours to clean up, plant gardens and paint murals in every single one.

In fact, it seems almost ridiculous to imagine that some amazing and fabulous things wouldn't be accomplished doesn't it?

I'd love to hear some of your ideas.

A Great Question

Vicki commented on my previous blog entry and asked a very compelling question: If we can afford to give so much away, why do we still have so many poor people here in the U.S.?

This is a pivotal question and I think most Christians think about this question, in one form or another, earnestly and often. It drives where we direct our giving (‘where is my money doing the most good?’). It drives whether or not we are motivated to give (‘if my giving is not having an impact… why bother?). It drives our perception of God (‘if He loves us so much why does He allow such poverty?’). And it drives a personal assessment of our individual ‘okay-ness’ (‘am I doing enough? All I can? what God requires?).

I would be very interested to get a dialog going on this subject. What is your experience? What have you discovered on your journey in this area? Are you discouraged? Motivated?

Please join in through the commenting feature and share your thoughts.

Personally, I believe that poverty is a very big and very complicated issue. It defies easy explanations and solutions. But it is a subject we all are compelled to consider given that we are called to be ‘the aroma of Christ’ on earth. So, here are some snippets of thought to get the dialog going.

ACT WITHOUT ALL THE INFORMATION – I have accepted that I may never understand poverty, its causes and what sustains it. Given that acknowledgement, I am faced with a simple choice: do what I can without all the answers or do something only when I have all the answers. For instance, I can’t tell you what has caused the person asking me for help to be in the situation they are in. And, I can’t be certain if the guy I give a few bucks to is going to buy alcohol, food or pay his rent with it. I can’t even tell if he/she is really wealthy and just scamming me. So, I have to decide what I am going to do with imperfect information. I choose to act in many of these situations as an alternative to inaction.

POVERTY IS A PART OF GOD’S OVERALL DESIGN (Part 1) – I don’t make this point idly. As I have thought, studied and prayed about the general question of why God gives differently to different individuals and people-groups (money, looks, talents, gifts, etc.) I have become convinced it is a part of His plan. God is the potter and we are the clay. He makes some to be beautiful vessels on earth and some to be meager. I believe He does this to challenge our understanding of who He is. How else would you understand true beauty if you don't learn to look inside instead of the outside for it? How else would you understand true love if you can’t understand that God loves the lowly and the exalted (on earth) equally? How could you understand true charity of spirit if you didn’t have the example of the poor widow who gave such a small amount – but all she had? How could you experience giving without someone in need? Is it possible that God designed the world to include ‘haves’ and ‘have-nots’ to allow us to learn to be like Him? How else would we understand blessing if we did not have the counter example of lack of blessing? How else would we understand contentment if we were not in some level of need?

IT IS A PART OF GOD’S OVERALL DESIGN (Part 2) – I also consider that God gave us free will and an opportunity to exercise it. Therefore, to some extent, the exploitation of some people by the powerful and greedy is also a part of God’s design – in the sense that He has allowed evil to co-exist with His creation on earth for a time. In that regard it is a sad part. Obviously, God grieves when we choose the world instead of Him. But, he allows us that choice. It makes it even more meaningful to think of the angels rejoicing in heaven as we come to God when you realize their grief when we turn away.

POVERTY IS A CONSEQUENCE OF SOME PEOPLE’S CHOICES – this may be a bit controversial – but I believe that some people make their own bed. Some people are lazy. Some people are unwilling to work. Some people have too high a sense of worth and are unwilling to accept labor they believe ‘beneath them’. Some people don't take full advantage of their God-given talents.  Some people don't take advantage of readily available education. Some people are foolish and take ill-advised financial risks. 2 Thessalonians 3:10b says ‘If a man will not work, he shall not eat’. Proverbs is replete with warnings against foolishness. For some people, poverty is the outward manifestation of idleness and foolishness.

POVERTY IS A POLITICAL/ECONOMIC REALITY – some poverty is a result of unemployment. In strictly economic terms unemployment (specifically in a capitalist economy) is directly related to inappropriately high wages. When political entities (unions, the government, etc.) set wages artificially high (e.g., minimum wages, etc.) unemployment occurs. Wages are also set artificially high when Government implements price controls (e.g., grain prices, utility prices, etc). It’s straightforward economics. If you want to have lower unemployment (which contributes to poverty as much or more than low wages) get government and other political organizations out of our markets and allow the free market to set the price on wages. The fact that the US has a minimum wage and over 2,200 price supports in place is clear evidence we intend to maintain a higher than necessary amount of poverty indefinitely. It’s designed in.

THE POVERTY PARADIGM SHIFT- it used to be that taking care of ones self and one's family was first a personal responsibility, second a family responsibility, and lastly a community responsibility.  Charity began at home. We learned to be giving by being expected to meet the needs of those less fortunate directly among us (and then remote from us). We could directly see their needs and respond.  We also 'knew' our neighbors which allowed us the discernment to know how best to meet their needs.  Within the last 80 years or so the US has adopted a different paradigm.  The government has systematically inculcated itself into every aspect of society and has taxed us to to provide the resources to do so.  Where personal income taxes at the federal level were almost non-existent 80 years ago - they are now high and always likely to go higher.  Simultaneously, we have transitioned from not even thinking about government as the answer to a society where a majority of citizens now rely, in part or fully, on government assistance to survive.  We no longer feel personally responsible for people's needs.  Instead, we point them to the government (e.g., social services, social security, unemployment, etc...) to have their needs met. Personally, I believe government cannot be as effective as individuals and the private sector in meeting needs due to inefficiencies, fraud, waste and interference in the free markets. Therefore, this paradigm shift to government as the answer - and the payment of taxes that might otherwise be used for individual charity to support government in this role is a direct contributor to maintaining and increasing poverty.


Okay.. enough of what I think.  What say you?

Are you satisfied?

In the business world, satisfaction (customer, vendor, employee) is highly studied. In fact, many models for expressing and evaluating satisfaction have been identified and are in use. One popular ‘model’ for identifying what ‘drives’ satisfaction (or dissatisfaction) is the Kano Model. The model looks like this:

The horizontal axis represents the degree to which ‘something’ is either provided or achieved. For instance, when you evaluate a cell phone you may have a list of features you desire/expect. If all of them are provided you would be on the right side of the horizontal line. If none of them were provided you would be towards the left side of the horizontal line.

The vertical line represents the degree of satisfaction achieved. The top represents complete satisfaction and the bottom complete dissatisfaction.

In the Kano model drivers of satisfaction are grouped into three basic types. The first type are called EXPRESSED. Expressed drivers are things people request; ask for; state a preference for. Here’s what the Kano model curve looks like for expressed features.

If someone expresses a desire for something and it is not provided the result is dissatisfaction. If the desire is expressed and fully met the result is a high degree of satisfaction. Of course, a middle result is possible when one or more features are partially provided or not fully provided.

A second type of driver of satisfaction is EXCITEMENT. Excitement is produced by providing features that are not even being expressed as desirable. These are typically new features. The first iPod produced excitement. The first moon roof produced excitement. Flowers in your motel room might produce excitement. Social Security excited people when first introduced. Adding excitement to the model looks like this:

Excitement only produces increased satisfaction. Even partial excitement increases satisfaction. Well done (achieved) or fully provided features produce large amounts of satisfaction. In fact, you can see from the figure that partial excitement can drive satisfaction higher than fully met expressed desires.

More interestingly, there is a third driver of satisfaction. That driver is called EXPECTED. When added, the Kano model looks like this:

This curve is fascinating and illuminating. You see, when a feature is expected and you don’t provide it – people get very dissatisfied. Imagine getting on a 4 hour flight and not being provided a beverage service. You’d be royally disappointed. You expect a beverage service on a long flight. In fact, you wouldn’t even ask for it (express a desire for it). You might ask if your seat has a power source to plug your computer in (expressed feature). But you just expect a drink. The most telling feature, however, is that this curve NEVER reaches even mild satisfaction. In fact, providing people what they have come to expect, AT BEST, achieves only indifference.

I said providing people ‘what they have come to expect’ for a very specific reason. You see, over time this is what happens.

Features no one was even thinking about pop up in products and services and create excitement. Over time, however, people start expressing an interest in that feature. They ask for it. After more time, so many people have expressed a desire for the feature that it simply becomes expected.  No one even asks for it anymore.  they just expect it.

In so many ways this slope is inspiring. It’s what keeps us getting better and better phones, computers, cars, etc. It’s what drives people to innovate. That's very positive.

However, this same model applies in other areas of life. For instance, how we view government. Or our family situation. Or our jobs. And it produces alarming results. Things that once produced excitement now produce indifference. What have you done for me lately? So, parents have to constantly give their kids more to stave off indifference. Our jobs have to produce more (pay, responsibility, excitement, etc) for us to be satisfied. And government must constantly provide more to keep people satisfied. The result of not getting more over time is diminishing satisfaction and indifference.

For instance, the following figure shows the slippery slope that results from the Kano Model applied to government.  What should (and were) thought of as privileges that produced satisfaction soon degrade into entitlements which, sadly, produce no satisfaction. 

So, what is the antidote?

Until I. Until we – can view what we have with thankfulness we will never be satisfied people. Thankfulness elevates the expected to produce satisfaction (the Bible uses the word contentment – or the state of being satisfied).

Thankfulness recognizes that what has long been provided remains worthy of appreciation. It provides perspective. It produces stability.

We can either continue to press for more, more, more; and likely bankrupt ourselves (emotionally, financially, spiritually, corporally) or we can be more thankful for what we have – or even – shockingly – give up some things we have come to expect and still be thankful for what remains (less).

I am meditating on this verse today: “Let the peace of Christ rule in your hearts, since .. you were called to peace. And be thankful.”

Further Reflections on the Walk

not to be too philosophical - but joel made an insightful comment about my previous post (worth the walk) and the picture with the joking sign 'down and out', you can find his exact point by reading the comments for that post. his comment was on my mind as i did my normal lunchtime walk this afternoon.

what is the value of the 'stuff' we all just 'carry around' each day? here's everything that i took on this walk. admittedly, the camera is unusual - but the rest is not:

a) clothes $173 total:
sweatshirt ($20), shirt ($15), shorts ($15), two pair of socks ($8), running shoes ($70), sweatpants ($20), hat ($20), and underwear ($5 - no comments please)

b) consumer electronics $1,200 total:
ipod nano ($150), cool earphones ($90), digital camera ($600), 2 GB Memory card in camera ($30), cell phone ($~300 actual value although I got it as part of my cell phone plan at a greatly reduced price) omron pedometer ($30)

c) misc $350 total:
cash for food and drinks along the way ($20), sunscreen ($10), glasses - with graduated lenses for old folks ($300), backpack ($20)

that means that for a little walk to SF i carried on my person $1,723 worth of 'stuff'.

i don't reveal that financial data in any prideful or boastful way. please understand that. instead, i mention it because it challenges me in a profound way that sometimes in my life i consider myself just scraping by - or just making it in this difficult economy and world. perhaps that's a lifetime of financial insecurity brought about by my upbringing creeping through.

but, moving the focus off me and this one event and making a more broad point - joel makes a very interesting case that most people in america - many far less blessed that we might be still have many or most of the items i took along with me last friday. and yet we routinely are able to think of ourselves as 'poor'.

i meant my little sign as a joke - but maybe the joke is on me upon reflection.

your thoughts?

What Would You Do?

Update: Thank you to everyone who posted a comment or sent an email with your ideas. I appreciate it.

I posted this entry in an attempt to get people thinking and dialoging and sharing more about how to approach resolving dilemmas like making a choice between two worthwhile, good activities. I'd say there was a pretty even split between people that thought a) go to bible study, b) go to the game and c) think outside the box and figure a means of combining the two together in some way.

That was pretty interesting to me and shows how honest, good, trained, loving people can approach issues differently. I especially loved the responses that were in category c) because that is kind of what I was thinking.

To whit, here's how I decided to resolve this little, intsy conflict:

I decided to post a biblically based question on my blog and invite my OAG to dialog with me on it. So, by my way of thinking.. I participated in an OAG meeting this week: in the blog-o-space. So, that being done.. and having had a good chance to meditate and dialog on God's word... I'm off in a little bit to the game. Oh, and Diane the complete wonderful person that she is dropped of some cookies last night that I get to take to the game and share. Sweeet!!

Have a great dinner and discussion!

See you next week!

Proverbs 11:14: Where no counsel is, the people fall: but in the multitude of counsellors there is safety.

Proverbs 15:22: "Without counsel, plans go awry, but in the multitude of counselors they are established."

You might be curious.. asking what do these verses have to do with me? Well, I was hoping I could solicit your counsel as I wrestle with a difficult decision. You game?

Here's the issue. There are two events tomorrow evening that I would love to participate in. However, they are overlapping in time and miles apart.. so a decision needs to be made. Where will I be spending my time?

I'd love to hear your thoughts. Your wise counsel. What you would do?

Opportunity #1: One Another Group at the Smiths
This is a meeting of our group bible study that occurs every Wednesday evening.
Considerations:

• Mrs. Smith (Diane) cooks dinner for everyone.. and that woman can COOK!
• Need to stop eating like a pig and lose a few pounds!
• The distinct possibility is always present that Diane will make some of her world famous cookies!
• Opportunity to dig into God's word
• Opportunity to share what God is doing in other people's lives
• Many more Wednesdays in life
• The spiritual benefits of spending time in the Word!
• Screaming at people during the evening is strongly discouraged

Opportunity #2: Mitty vs. Bellarmine Basketball Game
This is a meeting of our favorite high school basketball team as they take on a difficult West Catholic league foe. Considerations:

• Consession stand food only (or none at all... probably better!)
• Brandon always scores 30 points when I am NOT there ;)
• Opportunity to show love and support for a dear set of friends
• Since Brandon's graduating this year.. there are precious few opportunities like this left in my lifetime
• Screaming at people is encouraged/expected
• Opportunity to apply what I have learned in bible study in real life
  

Bill Gates Says

I've seen this before.. but it came around the office again today so I thought I would put it up on the blog for your enjoyment.

BTW.. these comments are NOT directed at my (fantastic!) kids or any of yours. This is just a good reminder of some basic truths.

It would be fun to hear the post-college blog readers weigh in on your thoughts, experiences and the most interesting differences YOU discovered as you transitioned from school to career! So - please share your thoughts via comments!




Bill Gates recently gave a speech at a High School about 11 things they did not and will not learn in school. He talks about how feel-good, politically correct teachings created a generation of kids with no concept of reality. This concept set them up for failure in the real world.

Rule 1: Life is not fair - get used to it!

Rule 2: The world won't care about your self-esteem. The world will expect you to accomplish something BEFORE you feel good about yourself.

Rule 3: You will NOT make $60,000 a year right out of high school. You won't be a vice-president with a car phone until you earn both.

Rule 4: If you think your teacher is tough, wait till you get a boss.

Rule 5: Flipping burgers is not beneath your dignity. Your Grandparents had a different word for burger flipping: they called it opportunity.

Rule 6: If you mess up, it's not your parents' fault, so don't whine about your mistakes, learn from them.

Rule 7: Before you were born, your parents weren't as boring as they are now. They got that way from paying your bills, cleaning your clothes and listening to you talk about how cool you thought you were. So before you save the rain forest from the parasites of your parent's generation, try delousing the closet in your own room.

Rule 8: Your school may have done away with winners and losers, but life HAS NOT. In some schools, they have abolished failing grades and they'll give you as MANY TIMES as you want to get the right answer. This doesn't bear the slightest resemblance to ANYTHING in real life.

Rule 9: Life is not divided into semesters. You don't get summers off and very few employers are interested in helping you FIND YOURSELF. Do that on your own time.

Rule 10: Television is NOT real life. In real life people actually have to leave the coffee shop and go to jobs.

Rule 11: Be nice to nerds. Chances are you'll end up working for one.

How Many Bad Guesses Does a Prophet Get?

Just 34 years go..in the June 24, 1974 edition, Time magazine warned,

"Climatological Cassandras are becoming increasingly apprehensive, for the weather aberrations they are studying may be the harbinger of another ice age". The article included data and quotations from some very notable scientists.

Its April 8th, 2008 edition led with 'How to Win the War on Global Warming'. Of course, that double edition included data and quotations from some very notable scientists.

Ironic.
Sad.
What should you believe?

Interestingly, amid the furor over global warming it is noteworthy that the planet has been on a temperature downturn for the last 14 months or so. It's not getting hotter... it's getting colder. In fact, the average temperature between 2007 and 2008 has declined almost a full degree C. The short term trend is now decidedly downward. (oops!)

As a result (I assume) I have noticed, lately, how the phrase 'Global Warming' has been replaced, subtly, with the term 'Global Climate Change'. Get the subtle shift?

Of course it's changing! Sometimes it's warming, sometimes getting colder - and sometimes it just stays about the same. So - this is a phrase that means almost nothing.

Except, it does mean something. You see, if you're for 'Global Warming' you'll only be right 1/3rd of the time (when temperatures rise). However, if you're for 'Global Climate Change' you'll be right 2/3rds of the time (when temperatures rise or fall). In fact, you'll be right if there are fewer or more tornadoes, more or less rainfall, stronger or milder hurricanes, fewer or increasing cloudy days, .. whatever.

So - folks are climbing off the global warming bus and boarding the climate change bandwagon. And, everyone knows that change is bad. Let's legislate!!

My point isn't to deride anyone that believes that global temperatures are trending up. They are. In fact, they have been for well over 180 years (far before you could blame the burning of fossil fuels for the problem). And over time they have trended down. Up. Down. Up. Down.

It's not even to deride anyone that believes that humans are demonstrably contributing to the warming of the globe. For the record, my personal belief is that CO2 emissions are not a meaningful contributor to global warming. And I'll tell you why I say that in just a second.

However, as a Christian - I am compelled to be a good steward of all that I am entrusted. So, I have a good reason to be wise in utilizing the resources of this planet without any arm twisting regarding global climate change. I do not need to be motivated by fear. I am motivated by love and respect.

So - what was the question? Oh yeah, I was wondering 'how many guesses does a prophet get before you should stop listening to the prophet?'. Generally speaking, I think the answer is pretty obvious. One.

You might think that is pretty harsh.. but in human terms that's all you should really get. If you say, authoritatively, that XYZ is going to happen and it does not - you are not a good predictor of future events. Period. You lose your rights to claim that you are. If you wear your lucky shirt... because your team always wins when you wear it.. and then they lose. Well, apparently your shirt isn't quite the predictor of things you thought it was - no matter how much you believe it is.

In a scientific sense.. the answer is also one. You see, when you are testing a hypothesis in science you can have all sorts of data that agree with your hypothesis. However, when you properly measure something that is not in agreement with your hypothesis you are done. Finished. Kaput. It only takes one contrary observation to debunk a hypothesis.

Unfortunately, marketing doesn't work the same as science. In marketing you might be able to overcome shortcomings of fact using advertising and presentation skills. Peace. I just don't like marketing near as much as I like truth. That's all I'm saying.

Okay -enough editorializing.. back to the point about science. It's not always possible to know with absolute certainly if two sets of facts are closely related to each other (example: wearing my shirt is related to my team winning). So, there is a mathematical thing called 'correlation' that is measured. When independent observations (shirt wearing vs. team winning) are aligned you have high correlation. When observations don't align you have low correlation. Low correlation means.. this thing didn't cause the other thing.

Which leads to the main point you should know: observations that are highly correlated don't necessarily prove a hypothesis - but observations that have low correlation absolutely disprove a hypothesis. You only get one wrong answer.

So, here's a cool thing (pun intended) about science. You can test all kinds of data. New data, old data, whatever. With something like global warming we can look backwards using all the data we've collected and make some general conclusions. We don't know that we will 'always' be right.. that lucky shirt may fail one day.. but we can at least figure out if we are right so far!

In that vein.. if you do some digging up of past observed data you will find that global temperatures highly correlate to solar activity. When solar activity increases.. temperatures rise.. and vice-versa (i believe God is in charge of that department). This has held true for hundreds of years; which is a lot of time in which to find contrary data to disprove the theory.

At the same time - you will find that global temperatures do not correlate to increases in fossil fuel use over long periods of time (decades).

This is just one example.


My point is simply this: if a prophet only gets one wrong guess.. why are we still listening to these people? And allowing them to keep driving the bus (legislate, tax, etc.)?

What's wrong with us?

A Question

Do you ever have thoughts that come to you and then keep recurring? Keep rattling around in your brain? Popping up at random times? Pestering you?

For the last few months I have had a recurring thought - a question really - that started as a visitor inside my brain - but seems to have put down roots and taken up residence.

Here's the question: "if not YOU. who?"

The first time I can distinctly remember being confronted with the thought was when I was out for a walk. I recall being distracted by some garbage on the ground; disturbed at the person who had so thoughtlessly littered. I wondered 'just WHO did they think was going to clean up after them?'. And then the thought came percolating up... 'if not YOU, who?'.

Perhaps, in some simple way - that person had created an opportunity for me to do something. Give something. Provide some small act of kindness to a world that desperately could use it. And in that moment, the question demanded a response; me? or someone else? So, I reached down, picked it up and carried it along until I passed the next garbage can - where I unceremoniously deposited it. In that one moment I chose me. And I thought that was the end of it.

Instead - the thought started popping into my head all too often. Who was going to make the pot of coffee at work? or phone someone with encouragement? or say hello to the stranger on the street? or show interest in someone's day? or put gas in the car? or talk to a co-worker who seems distracted by worry? or make the date plans?

If not me? who?

So, over the last few months my mindset has slowly transformed from expecting that others would be the one... to acknowledging that I am provided these opportunities to give something of myself to others - and acting on it.

I admit - Santa Clara does not appear any different to the naked eye - I assure you. But, while thinking about the imperceptible impact I was having.. another question popped into my head.

What would be the accumulated impact of many people asking themselves the same question?

And the answer I gave myself was .. I don't know.. but it's an interesting question!

So.. I ask you. If not YOU? who?

Is there something that has come to your attention today? That perhaps has escaped anyone else's attention? Except yours? That would require only modest effort on your part to do? If so.. would you consider responding? acting on it?

I don't know if that question will haunt you like it has me - and lead to any changes. But - I figure it was worth asking. After all.. if I didn't ask you the question.. who was going to?

If, on the off chance this question impacts your life.. I would love to hear your story. Please feel free to comment on this entry to share your story.